Alt\u0131nda 1180 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu 2010’dan bu yana kaydedilen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Haftay\u0131 tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 1200’den kapatsa da, alt\u0131na dair\u00a0“g\u00fcvenli liman”<\/b>\u00a0alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kayboldu\u011fu ortada.<\/p>\n

\n\u00d6nce ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakal\u0131m<\/strong><\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyelere gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin tahminimizi taa iki y\u0131l \u00f6nce dile getirdi\u011fimizde dudak b\u00fcken baz\u0131 dostlar\u0131m\u0131z, bug\u00fcnlerde\u00a0“Alt\u0131nda bundan sonra ne olur”<\/b>\u00a0sorusuna cevap vermemizi istiyor.<\/div>\n
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Olur veririz.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcsaadenizle, s\u00fcreci biraz geriden al\u0131p bug\u00fcne gelelim ve yar\u0131na dair tahminlerimizi dile getirelim…
\nBizi geriye g\u00f6t\u00fcren soru \u015fu:<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 uzunca bir zaman sevindiren alt\u0131n, ne oldu da son 9 ayda daimi bir ini\u015f s\u00fcrecine girdi?..<\/p>\n
S\u00fcreci kriz etkiledi<\/strong><\/div>\n
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\nBurada ilk bahsedilmesi gereken 2008 krizinin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131lama.<\/p>\n
Kriz patlak verince, alt\u0131n haliyle g\u00fcvenli liman olarak alg\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD’den ba\u015flayan ve Avrupa’y\u0131 epeyce kavuran krizin k\u00fcresel mahiyet arz etmesi bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin para musluklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131na sebep oldu.<\/p>\n
Musluklar a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131nca reel faiz oranlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f rekorlar\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Para arz\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131da\u00a0“enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korunma”<\/b>\u00a0\u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
“Korunma”<\/b>\u00a0aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 da g\u00fcvenli liman\u00a0“zannetti\u011fi”<\/b>\u00a0alt\u0131na y\u00f6neldi.<\/div>\n
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FED\u2019in ad\u0131mlar\u0131…<\/strong><\/p>\n
B\u00f6yle olunca da Ekim 2008’de 682 dolar olan alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131, 6 Ekim 2011’de 1.921 dolar ile tarihi zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ekim 2012’ye kadar 1.520 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmeden dalgal\u0131 seyir izleyen alt\u0131n, ABD ekonomisinin d\u00fczelmekte oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden makroekonomik veriler ve parasal geni\u015flemeden dolay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131ran da FED kaynakl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler oldu.<\/p>\n
FED parasal geni\u015flemenin sonuna gelindi\u011fini ve y\u0131l sonu itibariyle tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirince alt\u0131na bel ba\u011flayanlar\u0131n umutlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yara ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Evet, s\u00fcreci \u015f\u00f6yle bir toparlad\u0131ktan sonra gelelim esas meseleye…<\/p><\/div>\n
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Alt\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n gelece\u011fi ne olur, nas\u0131l olur?..<\/b><\/p>\n
Rota \u00fc\u00e7 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 be\u015f yukar\u0131 belli:<\/p>\n
\u0130lk durak 1.150-1.100 dolar, sonras\u0131nda beklenen 1.000 dolar seviyesi…<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanan geri \u00e7ekilme ile \u00f6nce 1.260 dolar deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, sonras\u0131nda da 1.200 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmesi, alt\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p><\/div>\n
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Maliyetlere dikkat<\/strong><\/p>\n
Sert \u00e7ekilmelere \u015fahit olaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 da volatilitesi y\u00fcksek seyredecek bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 bizi bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kapsamda, 1.200 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda 1.180, 1.150 ve 1.100 destekleri g\u00fcndeme gelece\u011fi gibi 1.100’\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile hedef b\u00f6lge olan 1.000 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Tabii bu noktada maden \u00e7\u0131kartma maliyetlerini de g\u00f6zden uzak tutmamak laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n madenini \u00e7\u0131kartman\u0131n maliyeti ortalama 600-700 dolar seviyelerinde olsa da bu rakam b\u00f6lgeden b\u00f6lgeye de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6yle ki, baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde \u00e7\u0131karma maliyeti 300-400 dolara kadar d\u00fc\u015ferken, baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde ise 1.100-1.200 dolar seviyelerine kadar \u00e7\u0131kabiliyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k seviyeleri azalan alt\u0131n madeni i\u015fletmelerinin faaliyetlerini durdurmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu da alt\u0131n arz\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na ve fiyatlar\u0131n\u00a0“uzun”<\/b>\u00a0vadede bir miktar y\u00fckselmesine sebep olabilir…<\/p>\n
O noktalara gelmeden, alt\u0131n\u0131n 1000 dolar seviyesine inmesini piyasalar\u0131n nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131na bir bakmak laz\u0131m…<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik diyece\u011fimiz \u015fu ki, ufukta 1000 dolar g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda!..<\/p><\/div>\n
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$\"\"$ <\/p>\n
PROF.DR. \u00dcNSAL BAN YAZDI\/ BUG\u00dcN<\/strong><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda 1180 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu 2010’dan bu yana kaydedilen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer. Haftay\u0131 tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 1200’den kapatsa da, alt\u0131na dair\u00a0“g\u00fcvenli liman”\u00a0alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kayboldu\u011fu ortada. \u00d6nce ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakal\u0131m Alt\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyelere gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin tahminimizi taa iki y\u0131l \u00f6nce dile getirdi\u011fimizde dudak b\u00fcken baz\u0131 dostlar\u0131m\u0131z, bug\u00fcnlerde\u00a0“Alt\u0131nda bundan sonra ne olur”\u00a0sorusuna cevap vermemizi istiyor. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,1],"tags":[9957],"class_list":["post-43866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-gundem","tag-altin-fiyatlari-ne-olur"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43866\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.erzhaber.com.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}